NH v Iowa
The TV coverage I've been watching has implied that New Hampshire is a crazy comeback surprise and Iowa is somehow the "real" result. I think they're wrong. Iowa is the anomaly, because of the bizarre public forum that is the Iowa caucus. You know why Hillary does worse in a caucus? Because women who are leaning Hillary go to the caucus with their husbands, and he says "Let's go for Obama" or "Let's go for Edwards" and she says "Well, all right then" because she doesn't want to spend the next hour sitting alone in the Hillary group. I've sat through a caucus. This is how it works.
It's a similar phenomenon with Obama--it is a lot more difficult to cast a vote against a black candidate in front of your peers than it is when you're alone in a voting booth.
Hi Emily,
I really appreciate your insight on the caucus effect on women voters. It's perfect.
But I don't understand your comment on Obama and race. If one is a closet racist at any Iowa caucus all he/she would have to do to keep that a secret is pick either Hillary (who was 'viable' everywhere) or Edwards, based upon "experience" and be done with it. I can't imagine anyone felt that there only option was Obama or confessing to racism. And the same actually in NH. Tell a pollster you're a Dem and when you get the money question you pick any whitie for "experience" and be done.
Hope you're feeling better.
In a primary or caucus with white choices I don't see how anyone would feel compelled to chose Obama.
Post new comment